The Group Seeing The Fastest Rise In Type 2 Diabetes May Surprise You
If you're in your 20s or 30s, type 2 diabetes probably isn't something you think to ask about at your annual checkup. Your doctor may not bring it up either. Routine screening doesn't typically start until age 40, which means a lot of younger adults are flying under the radar.
But new research1 tracking diabetes diagnoses across England over 14 years found that the sharpest rise in new cases isn't happening in older adults.
About the study
Most of what we know about type 2 diabetes trends comes from data on older adults, because that's where the majority of cases have historically occurred.
But new research looked into the broader population, with a strong focus on the early-onset category (type 2 diabetes diagnosed before age 40).
- Researchers of this study analyzed new diagnoses from 2011 to 2024 using a national dataset covering more than 99% of GP practices in England, with results broken down by age group, sex, and ethnicity.
- BMI at the time of diagnosis was also tracked to understand how body weight at diagnosis has shifted over time.
Why focus on early onset diabetes?
Young women are driving the rise in early-onset type 2 diabetes
Between 2011 and 2024, new diagnoses rose steadily in women under 40, and faster than in men the same age. The increase was sharpest in women aged 20–29, where rates climbed roughly 3% per year.
Men in the same age groups also saw increases, but at a slower pace. At the other end of the spectrum, diagnoses in adults aged 60–79 actually declined.
The rise wasn't uniform across ethnicities. Among women in their 20s, Black and Asian women saw the fastest increases, nearly double the rate seen in White women. In the 30–39 age group, the pattern flipped: White women showed the steepest rise.
BMI at diagnosis is climbing too, and it's rising fastest in the youngest adults.
By 2024, the median BMI at diagnosis in women aged 20–29 was noticeably higher than in women diagnosed in their 60s, a gap that has widened over the study period.
Why young women specifically
According to the researchers, a few factors are likely at play.
- Women in this study had a higher median BMI at diagnosis than men across every age group, and younger adults appear especially susceptible to the environmental drivers of obesity.
- Healthcare access matters too: women in their 20s and 30s interact with the system more often than men the same age, for preconception care, pregnancy, or menstrual health, creating more opportunities to catch diabetes early.
- Gestational diabetes adds another layer, since women who develop it are followed up for blood sugar monitoring afterward and may be referred into prevention programs.
What you can do with this information
Routine diabetes screening typically begins around age 40, which means younger women at elevated risk may need to advocate for earlier testing. Here's what to keep in mind.
Know your risk factors. The following are associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes before 40:
- A history of gestational diabetes: a known risk factor for type 2 diabetes later in life, and post-partum follow-up is an important monitoring window.
- PCOS: associated with insulin resistance, which raises type 2 diabetes risk.
- Family history of type 2 diabetes: a first-degree relative with the condition increases your personal risk.
- Ask about early screening: if one or more of the above applies to you and you're under 40, it's worth raising the conversation with your provider. A simple blood sugar test can identify prediabetes or early type 2 diabetes before symptoms appear.
The takeaway
The data is clear: type 2 diabetes is arriving earlier, and women under 40 are seeing the steepest increases.
Knowing your risk factors and asking about screening before age 40 are two of the most practical steps you can take right now.
Beyond, that, build habits that support healthy weight and metabolic health. A protein-rich diet and regular muscle-building exercise are among the most evidence-backed ways to support healthy weight and insulin sensitivity.