mbg Beauty Refresh Awards 2024: Everything We're Predicting Will Be Big Next

The beauty trend cycle moves at breakneck speed these days, which means us editors must remain especially eagle eyed for upcoming ingredients, designs, and aesthetics in the spotlight before they retire in a blink.

So as we tested hundreds of products (no exaggeration) for mindbodygreen’s Refresh Awards, we also kept a running list of market predictions.

The past several months have been dominated by lip oils and milky skin care confections—what “it” categories will hold sway for the rest of the year?  

I used to feel very strongly about hot tools and heat styling—that strong opinion being that it should generally be used in moderation given its very damaging effects. 

I felt strongly about this for a few reasons. First, hot tools themselves were practically blow torches without any built-in safeguards. These blow dryers and irons fried hair to a crisp, creating singed strands in no time.

The second aspect that gave me pause was how folks used them: Not only was daily styling the norm, but the looks themselves were pristine—the sort of styles that only come with prolonged, repeat passes of the hot tool. Finally, “recovery” and “damage reversal” products weren’t effective.

They were merely bandaid formulas meant to mask split ends and breakages, rather than actually fix anything.  

But all of that has changed—how we approach hair styling looks much different now than it did five, ten years ago. And because times have changed, so too has my opinions on heat styling. Within reason — and while using high-quality products and tools — heat styling doesn’t have to be torturous for the strands. 

And the newest wave of hair care products will ensure just that. We’ve entered a new era of hair care, and it’s only going to get more innovative from here. 

The first thing to note are the hot tools themselves. Dyson’s launches—including the Dyson Airstrait Straightener, which was a winner of the Beauty Refresh Awards this year—continue to make styling easier on the strands. The Airstrait, for example, not only offers wet-to-dry styling, but will get strands pin straight without the damaging hot plates. Or infrared styling tools minimize heat exposure to the fragile cuticle, while also helping reduce frizz and adding shine.  

Not only have tools themselves become less damaging, but products like bond builders and bio-identical keratin fillers mean folks can actually do something about preventing and reversing breakage. We awarded two bond builders (the Aveda Bond-Building Repair Flash Treatment and Olaplex No.4D Clean Volume Detox Dry Shampoo) as well as a keratin treatment (the Virtue Damage Reverse Serum), but there were countless other fantastic formulas at many price points. For example, Garnier Fructis’ Hair Filler systems help strengthen weak bonds with citric acid and Kerasilk Strengthening Bond Builder reduces damage with several natural and biotech-derived ingredients. The market for these products will only continue to grow—and I also suspect lipid replenishing products will have a much-deserved moment as well. 

And finally, how people use these tools has changed. Folks aren’t spending hours in front of the mirror, going over the same patch of hair with a dryer looking for that perfect-looking blowout. Styles are more laid-back and un-fussy, which somewhat ironically means the hair will look healthier long-term. 

Overall, I think our relationship with hair styling has come to a pretty happy balance. Folks still find joy in doing their hair, but aren’t willing to sacrifice the health of the hair in the process. I look forward to seeing what new innovations come out in the next year to meet this demand. 

Look, I’m no stranger to makeup multi-sticks. I adore a rosy tinted number I can tap on my cheeks, lids, lips, and brow bone for a full face in about five seconds flat; but this past year, stick formulas have snuck into just about every step of my beauty routine—not just makeup. Before I knew it, my full line-up had simply become a smattering of sticks. I’m not mad about it! 

Consider new beauty balms, like Deinde’s Moisture Locking Face Stick, Kiehl’s Ultra Facial Skin Barrier Repair Balm, and the Hero Cosmetics Glow Balm: Each contains an emollient-rich formula and a glide-on application that for noticeable skin hydration wherever you go. Or take cocokind’s new body treatment collection, which includes a 10% AHA solution to nix pesky keratosis pilaris and a ceramide-rich body oil. Both come stick form, perfect for those craving a quick, mess-free application (read: no greasy fingers). 

I’m someone who typically shies away from foundation sticks (liquid formulas tend to deliver a dewier finish), but with new launches from Ami Colé and ILIA, I’m officially changing my tune. Both provide a demi-matte finish that makes my skin look cloud-like, never cakey, and the precise applicator makes it much easier to spot conceal areas I’d like to have a bit more coverage. 

In the year ahead, I expect these little sticks to, well, stick. I personally won’t rest until my whole routine consists of swipe after swipe. 

Truly stellar beauty products provide a well-rounded sensorial experience, in which the look and feel of a formula is just as important as the ingredients in the jar. Lately, product vessels themselves have taken center stage, with packaging that transforms our everyday items into tiny, special sculptures. 

Soft Services Theraplush instantly comes to mind: Relaunched in a bright yellow shade, the ribbed case looks especially chic sitting on my nightstand. (An intentional aesthetic, according to the brand, to encourage use right before bed.)

Natural materials—like stone, sand, and soil—seem to be the inspiration for other works of art. Take fragrance brand Future Society, which features fully recyclable caps meant to resemble fossilized stones, or Beyoncé’s highly-anticipated hair care line, Cécred, with packaging specifically designed to mimic the stone of ancient monuments. Similarly, Byredo’s new Mineralscapes comes in a mirrored steel case adorned with mineral stones that reflect the shades of the 18-color eyeshadow palette. 

Some beauty brands have even begun to offer collector’s items to take sculpture a step further and celebrate you, the artist, in the process. For instance, you can swipe on a Bisou Balm from French makeup brand violette_FR as you gaze into their Object de Réflexion, which also serves as a makeup mixing palette and functional art piece. 

Once tossed haphazardly in a cosmetic bag or tucked away on a shelf, products with these artistic elements inspire us to display our beloved beauty buys just as we would a precious antique—and we predict plenty more treasures to come. 

Pamela Anderson did the world a favor by attending Paris Fashion Week completely makeup-free in the fall of 2023. While there was some debate as to why she did it (was it to prime her fans for her entrance into the beauty space a la skin care brand Sonsie?) it was legendary nevertheless. 

Since then, more celebrities have followed suit, posting unfiltered, makeup-free selfies that appear refreshingly real, complete with dark spots and breakouts. While we can't be certain these images are untouched, their authenticity is what resonates

Alongside the rise of makeup-free faces, there's been a surge in ultra-minimal-coverage makeup like luxurious tinted moisturizers, bronzing drops with skincare benefits, and self-tanner contour wands—a trend I like to call naked makeup. This shift away from full-coverage products reflects a growing desire for a natural finish that we now feel empowered to embrace.

​​Even acne has gained celebrity endorsement, with brands like Starface collaborating with it-girls Devon Carlson showcasing colorful pimple patches as symbols of skin empowerment. While not strictly makeup, these patches support the movement towards feeling confident in our skin and deserve a place in the naked makeup trend. 

In 2024, I anticipate more naked makeup launches (bronzing products, especially) and a continued trend toward transparency on social media, making faux filters something of the past.

Yet another celebrity beauty brand enters the market, prompting a visual eye-roll from some and perhaps an under-the-breath "ugh" from others. It's understandable—many celebrity brands have been more about hype than substance, so the skepticism is justified.

However, the landscape of celebrity beauty brands is evolving. It's becoming increasingly competitive, and consumers are raising their expectations—and rightfully so. 

Brands are starting to listen.

We've reached a point where some beauty brands are valued and loved for their product quality rather than just the famous name behind them. Imagine if Hailey Bieber sold and stepped down from Rhode—people would likely still swear by the Peptide Lip Treatment. The same goes for Selena Gomez's Rare Beauty Blush, Lady Gaga's Haus Labs Foundation, Victoria Beckham Beauty's Vast Lash Mascara (a mindbodygreen Beauty Refresh Award Winner), and more.

Certainly, celebrity-backed brands have the advantage of funding and immediate recognition. However, the glamor associated with these brands doesn't seem to carry the same weight with consumers as it once did, forcing these brands to put quality and performance first.